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To develop and test the model, I'll use data from Pacini and Bergman\footnote{"MINMOD: a computer program to calculate insulin sensitivity and pancreatic responsivity from the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test", {\em Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine} 23: 113-122.}.
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To develop and test the model, I'll use data from Pacini and Bergman (1986)\footnote{"MINMOD: a computer program to calculate insulin sensitivity and pancreatic responsivity from the frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test", {\em Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine} 23: 113-122.}.
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The dataset is in a file in the repository for this book, which we can read into a DataFrame:
So if we find parameters that make the model fit the data, we can use $k_3 / k_2$ as an estimate of $S_I$.
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For the example data, the estimated values of $S_G$ and $S_I$ are $0.029$ and for $8.9\times10^{-4}$.
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For the example data, the estimated values of $S_G$ and $S_I$ are $0.029$ and for $8.9\times10^{-4}$. According to Pacini and Bergman, these values are within the normal range.
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Normal?
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Units?
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\section{The insulin minimal model}
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In addition to the glucose minimal mode, Pacini and Bergman present an insulin minimal model, in which the concentration of insulin, $I$, is governed by this differential equation:
\item$k$ is a parameter that controls the rate of insulin disappearance independent of blood glucose.
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\item$G(t)$ is the measured concentration of blood glucose at time $t$.
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\item$G_T$ is the glucose threshold; when blood glucose is above this level, it triggers an increase in blood insulin.
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\item$\gamma$ is a parameter that controls the rate of increase (or decrease) in blood insulin when glucose is above (or below) $G_T$.
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% TODO: explain why t is there
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\end{itemize}
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The initial condition is $I(0) = I_0$. As in the glucose minimal model, we treat the initial condition as a parameter which we'll choose to fit the data.
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The parameters of this model can be used to estimate, $\phi_1$ and $\phi_2$, which are values that ``describe the sensitivity to glucose of the first and second phase pancreatic responsivity". They are related to the parameters as follows:
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%
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\[\phi_1 = \frac{I_{max} - I_b}{k (G_0 - G_b)}\]
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%
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\[\phi_2 = \gamma\times 10^4 \]
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%
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where $I_{max}$ is the maximum measured insulin level, and $I_b$ and $G_b$ are the basal levels of insulin and glucose.
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In the notebook for this chapter, you will have a chance to implement this model, find the parameters that best fit the data, and estimate these values.
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